These factors remain critical even as the Intelligence Community (IC) must respond to the need both to understand human interaction with increasingly powerful technologies and to use those technologies effectively in its own work. Those assessments must reflect lessons and insights derived from a deep understanding of cultural and political history and context, the way humans and political entities behave, and current trends and forces shaping the actions and decisions of individuals and groups. Analysts have always synthesized large volumes of data and information on fast-breaking developments to produce reliable and accurate assessments that support urgent and consequential decisions. These advances are also dramatically expanding possibilities for collaboration among personnel and integration of data sources.Įven as they assimilate both evolving global threats and complex new tools, intelligence analysts continue to rely on research produced within many academic disciplines. Advances in data processing and other technologies, includingĪrtificial intelligence (AI), 1 large dataset analytics, dynamic search tools, and interactive technologies, along with access to new kinds of data, such as digital video footage, are allowing intelligence analysts to process multiple sources of data and intelligence far more quickly and efficiently than ever before. In concert with these developments, the tools available to intelligence analysts for understanding, forecasting, and mitigating security risks are also evolving. Looking beyond the intentional actions of people and entities, moreover, intelligence analysts must seek to understand such developments as global climate change and the growth of autonomous technology. Communication in the cyber world has the potential to undermine political stability and democracy.
These new weapons can dramatically amplify the power of potential adversaries to inflict harm and to “disrupt commercial activities, daily life, and military operations cause economic damage compromise sensitive and/or technical information and interrupt critical infrastructure such as power grids and information networks” ( U.S. These potential adversaries may be motivated by factors different from those that have been understood to drive nation-states, and they have access to new kinds of weapons, including computing technologies and cyberspace operations, as well as chemical and biological agents. security in the coming decade must not only monitor nation-states but also track shifting combinations of both nonstate and state-sponsored actors, and even individuals who may have the capacity to cause large-scale harm to human life and to disrupt governance and civil society. Intelligence experts anticipating risks to U.S.
Historically, their primary focus may have been on potential threats posed by nation-states, but the landscape has evolved.
The agencies and individuals responsible for protecting the United States from international and domestic threats need to understand complex and rapidly evolving security challenges.